Current situation of Canadian real estate
Analysis of the Current Situation of Canadian Real Estate in 2025
Segmented market dynamics
Differences in Residential Types
Independent houses: Strong demand, with a median price increase of 4.9% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2024.
Apartment: Excess inventory limits growth (only 1.5% year-on-year), and high-density apartments in downtown Toronto will need several years to recover.
Vacation and investment properties
There is no selling trend in the vacation home market, and the change in capital gains tax has not triggered panic trading;
The construction of multi unit residential buildings is accelerating, and rental properties have become a key focus of development.
⚠️ Risks and Challenges
Economic uncertainty
Trump's election may exacerbate trade frictions, and imported inflation may slow down the pace of central bank interest rate cuts;
The national housing sales to new listings ratio has dropped to 45.9%, and buyers' bargaining power has increased.
Structural contradictions in the market
In a high interest rate environment, first-time homebuyers still face down payment pressure and some are turning to non-traditional ways of purchasing homes (such as co ownership);
The high housing prices in Ontario and British Columbia have led to population migration to Alberta and Atlantic provinces.
Future prospects
Short term: Spring 2025 may see a small peak in sales, but house prices are expected to decline by 3.2% for the whole year, and are expected to rebound by 4.8% in 2026;
Long term: The decline in interest rates and policy easing may drive a 10.1% increase in trading volume by 2026, with greater growth potential in western provinces.
The Canadian real estate market is undergoing a deep adjustment, and regional differentiation and policy games will become key variables in the next two years.
Overall market trend

Sales and price differentiation
Ontario and British Columbia: Toronto's housing sales in April plummeted 23.3% year-on-year, with average prices dropping 0.7% month on month to CAD 1.0657 million, indicating a continued sluggish market; British Columbia is expected to see a 4.1% decline in housing prices by 2025, while Ontario is expected to experience a 6.4% decline. The number of listings in both regions is expected to increase, with a buyer's market advantage.
Western and Quebec: Calgary's housing prices will increase by 10.42% year-on-year in 2024, and Quebec is expected to see another 7.4% increase in housing prices by 2025, becoming a national growth engine.

Policy and interest rate impact
The central bank's interest rate cuts stimulated: a cumulative interest rate cut of 175 basis points in 2024, relaxation of mortgage policies (such as lowering down payment ratios), and a 0.5% month on month rebound in housing prices in the fourth quarter, with the median price of independent homes rising to 855900 Canadian dollars.
Trade war risk: The threat of US tariffs may lead to a decline in Canadian exports, indirectly suppressing demand for home purchases; Toronto housing sales have dropped to 2008 levels due to economic uncertainty.

️ Regional market performance
Regional Core Features Price Trends (2025) Ontario supply-demand imbalance, buyer led market expected 6.4% decline Stable demand in Quebec French speaking region, favorable policies expected increase of 7.4% Alberta Province Population influx eases inventory pressure Expected 4.4% increase Three Atlantic provinces Low housing prices attract interprovincial immigration Moderate rise
⚠️ Key points for avoiding pitfalls Debt management: prioritize repayment of self owned housing loans ("bad debt"), and control the leverage of investment housing loans within 50% of total assets; Transaction costs: Avoid frequent buying and selling, property transaction taxes can reach up to 5% -8%, and long-term holding (>5 years) is more likely to cover costs; Tax planning: Non resident investments require a 25% asset appreciation tax to be reserved, and short-term real estate speculation (<12 months resale) requires payment of business income tax; Risk avoidance: Stay away from high-density apartments in downtown Toronto/Vancouver and be wary of developers' delayed delivery and hidden maintenance costs.
2025 Canadian Real Estate Investment Guide
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‌Regional differentiation and core strategies
Growth engine provinces: Quebec is expected to see a 7.4% increase in housing prices by 2025, while Alberta is expected to have a net inflow of population supporting an average independent home price of CAD 1.01 million, making the two regions a preferred safe haven; Traditional provinces cooling down: Ontario and British Columbia housing prices continue to be sluggish, Toronto apartment rents have dropped by 2.8%, and high-density properties in the city center need to be wary of long-term low return risks; Potential market: The three Atlantic provinces attract interprovincial immigration due to low housing prices, resulting in high rental returns, but attention should be paid to market liquidity risks. Real estate types and investment directions Independent houses: In the fourth quarter of 2024, the median price increased by 4.9% year-on-year, possessing both preservation properties and long-term appreciation potential, making them suitable for high net worth individuals to hold; Multi household rental properties: Policies promote the construction of multi unit residential buildings, with stable demand from young rental groups and an annual rental return rate of up to 4% -6%; Industrial real estate: Low vacancy rates in warehouses and data centers, steady rental growth, suitable for hedging against fluctuations in the residential market; Countercyclical operation: Purchase low-priced assets at the end of the interest rate hike cycle (before the high point of unemployment rate or interest rate cut) to lock in future appreciation space.
Practical advice
Priority given to educational support: The demand for Free Hold properties (without property management fees) around public schools is stable, with both self use and rental value;


Leasing investment strategy: Purchase a two bedroom apartment near the university area, with rent covering more than 70% of the loan, and hold it for more than 4 years to avoid short-term fluctuations;

Long term layout: The focus of the interest rate downturn cycle is on the allocation of independent houses and rental properties in core cities, with a potential 10% rebound in transaction volume by 2026.

Core Logic: Regional differentiation determines the upper limit of returns (western>eastern), asset types determine the ability to resist risks (detached houses>apartments), and leverage management determines the safety margin of investment.