Refugee applications increase by 164% in 6 years! Iran and Türkiye have a success rate of 95%

Since 2018, the number of refugee applications received by Canada has increased by 164%. CBC's investigation found that there are significant differences in the difficulty faced by people from different countries when applying for asylum. The application success rate of refugees from India, Haiti and Mexico is close to half, while that of refugees from Iran and Türkiye is the highest, reaching more than 95%.

In 2023, Canada granted asylum to nearly 37000 refugee applicants, up from just over 14000 in 2018. It increased by 164% in 6 years.

The refugee approval rate has also increased from 64% in 2018 to 82% in the first nine months of 2024.

Among them, the recognition rate of asylum seekers from India, Haiti and Mexico is about 50% from January 2018 to September 30, 2024. However, data analysis shows that among the refugees allowed to stay in Canada, Iran and Türkiye have the largest number of applicants, with the recognition rate exceeding 95%. This result is not related to the type of persecution faced by asylum seekers.

Factors affecting asylum outcomes

IRB stated that factors that determine the outcome of a refugee application include the applicant's credibility, ability to prove their identity and claims of persecution, the severity of the threat they face, and the situation in their country of origin.

However, experts told CBC that Canada has two systems for processing asylum applications: one system typically makes positive rulings for applicants who are considered to be from a legal refugee country; Another set is aimed at other applicants. Critics point out that due to the limited scrutiny of the first method, the system is prone to abuse.

Accelerated Trial Method

Most refugee applicants present their cases at the hearing, and it is up to IRB members to decide whether they are eligible for asylum.

However, according to the Immigration and Refugee Protection Act, certain cases can be decided directly without a hearing, a process commonly referred to as "written review". This method is suitable for applicants from countries with high recognition rates, who can prove their identity, have no serious credibility issues, and have passed security checks.

Refugee applications cannot be rejected without a hearing, so there are only two possible outcomes for "written review": asylum or referral to a hearing for review.

Mojdeh Shahriari, a refugee and immigration lawyer in Vancouver and former IRB member, pointed out that this method was rarely used in the past, but as of September 30, 2024, the backlog of cases has reached nearly 250000, and the government is looking for a fast track solution that does not require a hearing.

Shahriari said that this approach carries risks: "The refugee protection system has been and is increasingly being abused

Risk of abuse

Shahriari has processed many asylum applications from Iran, and she pointed out that most of the applications are very genuine because the Iranian regime's rule is "frightening". For example, political dissidents or religious individuals who convert to non Islam may face severe persecution.

However, she also pointed out that some evidence, such as baptism certificates or photos of religious activities, can be forged, which makes the system vulnerable to abuse.

CBC's analysis shows that the majority of applications from Iran involve religious persecution, with the majority of applicants being considered apostates and the second largest group being Christians. Shahriari stated that in order to prevent false applications, she will screen clients before accepting cases.

The difference between two types of treatment

In contrast, asylum seekers from other countries face strict scrutiny. The recognition rate for applications from Nigeria was only 46% between 2018 and September 2024.

Toronto immigration lawyer Vakkas Bilsin said that cases from such countries are almost always sent for hearings, and applicants must prove that police cannot protect them or obtain safe haven elsewhere in the country. The requirement for the possibility of internal security asylum (IFA) has increased the difficulty of application.

For applications from countries such as Iran, there is almost no need to worry about IFA issues, as persecution is usually carried out by the state and applicants have nowhere to escape.

Shahriari believes that as the success rate of cases without hearings continues to rise, this gap will further widen.

These cases are less reviewed, so the success rate will remain at a high level, which will become the basis for continuing to designate these countries

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Canada’s acceptance of refugee claims has ballooned in last 6 years — more for some countries than others